In this guide
What this covers
Prediction markets price probability. The discipline is deciding what you think the probability is before you look at the book, then only acting when the market disagrees with you.
1. Start with liquidity, not with the story
Show me the most liquid macro markets this month and size a $500 position on the one I pick.Liquidity first is deliberate. An interesting market with no depth cannot be exited, which makes the interesting part irrelevant.
2. Translate odds into probability
A market at 38% YES is saying the event happens a little more than one time in three. Your edge, if you have one, is a defensible reason to think that number is wrong.
| Market says | You think | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 38% | ~55% | YES has value |
| 38% | ~35% | No trade; the market is roughly right |
| 38% | ~20% | NO has value |
No disagreement, no trade. Being interested in a topic is not an edge.
3. Size from the loss, not the win
Maren sizes against the cap you name. Max loss on a prediction market position is your full stake — there is no partial recovery. So set the cap at a number you are content to write off entirely, and let the payout be whatever it is.
If the max-payout line is doing the persuading rather than the probability line, step away from the trade.
4. Check resolution before you commit
The preview names the resolution source and settlement date. Ambiguous resolution criteria are the most common way a correct call still loses money. Read it.
Tips
- Ask Cortex for the base rate on the underlying event class first. It is a useful anchor before you look at the book.
- Depth flags matter more than spread on these venues; a tight spread on a shallow book is a mirage.
- Track positions as a portfolio. Several correlated bets on one macro outcome is one concentrated bet.
Troubleshooting
Fill worse than the quoted odds. The book was thin. Reduce size or wait for depth.
Market resolved against expectation on a technicality. The resolution criteria differed from your reading. It is worth re-reading the source wording on every market before committing.
The controls behind this workflow
- Stake is bounded by the risk cap you set; the position cannot exceed it.
- Thin books are flagged before you commit, with depth stated.
- Resolution source and settlement date are shown before the position opens.
Guides describe how to operate Maren. They are not financial advice, and figures shown are illustrative. You approve every transaction before it is signed.